covid19 cases double yet government r number drops

The Government has released its latest estimation of the R (reproduction) number. This week, while infections in the UK have more than doubled the Office for Science is reporting a DROP in infection rates?!

The reported drop in Covid-19 reproduction is likely to surprise many. Since last Friday (2ND October) the amounts of new Coronavirus cases has almost doubled, rising from around 9,000 new cases to over 17,000 on the 9th October.

As is the norm with government estimates, it seems the numbers presented are a ‘best case’ scenario’. If we look at the data for new cases last week and compare them to this week, the R estimate seems very low.

(The reproduction rate represents the number of people a sick person will pass the virus on to).

For instance, in the seven-days leading up to last Friday (2nd October), the UK reported between 44,000 – 50,000 new Coronavirus cases. In the last SIX days the UK has reported around 86,000-90,000 cases; And when tonight’s data is released the last seven-days will have registered over 100k new cases.

This is more than DOUBLE the new cases what we saw in the previous week!

Todays R number estimate also contradicts the data the ONS has published, which shows infections are soaring, NOT slowing! It seems that while everyone is recording massive jumps in COVID-19 cases correctly, Government are dragging their feet and waiting for that magical “something” that will make coronavirus disappear!

(TL;DR – These stats dont seem to match reality of COVID-19’s current exponential growth!)

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