This week, fears that COVID-19 was on the comeback were confirmed with new cases skyrocketing to more than 3000 per day!
New COVID-19 cases (Daily / Weekly / Averages)
On Saturday (12th) September, the UK reported 3497 new COVID-19 cases. This brought the rolling 7-day total up to 21010 new cases.
IN the 7-days (Aug 30th – Sept 6th) in the lead up to last Sunday, the UK had reported 10992 new COVID-19 cases.
This equates to a 91.1% week-on-week increase in new COVID-19 cases in only seven days.
As of September 12th, the UK is now observing an average increase of 0.84% per day to the total amount of UK COVID-19 cases; Looking at this in terms of new cases, it represents an average of 3001 new cases every day.
The UK’s R number (National / Regional)
We get UK’s R data number from two sources, Governments Office for Science, and CMMID.
Both of our sources place the UK’s nationwide R number between 1.0 – 1.2. A point of concern with the current estimates is that they don’t seem to match the exponential growth we are seeing with new cases.
More data is required to build an up-to-date picture of the R number nationally due to the current inflation in cases.
Looking at the regional estimates for the R numbers this week was sobering. Wales, the North West of England and the East Midlands have the highest R numbers.
The regional danger areas are:
- East Midlands currently has an R number of 1.43 with its range rising to 2.18.
- West Midlands currently has an R number of 1.45 with a range reaching 2.12.
- Wales currently has an R number of 1.64 with a range reaching as high as 2.98.
Between the Sept 5th to Sept 6th, the Welsh R number has skyrocketed from a Median of 1.33 to 1.64, with its range reaching as high as 2.98!
An R of 3.0 would mean that for every one person catching COVID-19 three others will catch it.
Currently, ALL UK nations and regions have an R number higher than 1.10. It is predicted that the R number will raise more in all areas. (This has been confirmed by new cases continuing to rise).
Hospital and Deaths statistics
Currently, there are 884 patients in NHS hospitals being treated for COVID-19. Throughout this week we have not seen much change in the amounts of people in hospital. The amounts of patients have gone up and down day-to-day. While there has been a slight increase in patients, it is not notable.
The NHS is reporting around 141 new COVID-19 patients every day.
The UK’s daily death statistics have also remained consistently low. On Sept 8th, 32 deaths were recorded although this was the only day which went above 15 deaths and may be related to a lag in reporting.
Projections
Using the Average daily increases to the total amount of COVID-19 cases, we can project into the next week.
If we see the same 91% rise in cases this week as we did last week, we could see as much as 40129 cases reported; which, would see us reporting over 5000 cases on average per day.
What is likely, is the total amount of COVID-19 cases will continue to rise at the current average of 0.60% – 0.84% per day. If cases grow at this rate the average rise to around 3170 new cases per-day by next Sunday.
From Monday people across the UK will again be asked to avoid meeting in groups of more than 6 people. However, this guidance only extends to home settings, meaning groups of more than 6 people can still meet and have fun; and spread the virus.
Governments latest ‘plan’ to slow infections, much like the first UK wide lockdown in March, has come too late. It feels like a matter of time until we enter another lockdown, as it will be the only viable solution.
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