Recent COVID-19 statistical data from CMMID shows that while Boris Johnson was pushing to reopen much of the UK on Super Saturday, the R-Numbers had already reached 1 or higher in some of the countries most populated regions.

Estimated regional R numbers 26th June 2020
Estimated regional R numbers 7th July 2020

In recent weeks, the modelling data from CMMID had show a more promising outlook with R-Numbers dropping in most areas. However, the most recent data shows an uptick in the R (reproduction) number in the 10 days since the previous report.

Most worrying is the timing of this dataset, with the estimates being retrospective, in this case referring to the 6th of July which was the day after Englands bars and pubs reopened to the public for “super Saturday”.

The data shows that on the 6th July, London, West Midlands, Yorkshire and Northern Ireland all had an R number of 1 of higher. The biggest jump observed within the new data can be seen within Yorkshire and Humber, whose R-Number has risen from 0.8 to 1.0!

With both Government, and Independent research data on COVID-19 infections showing a bump in infections in the UK, Government will be hoping that we are not looking at the start of a second wave.

What do you think about this?